East Palestine, Ohio Behavioral Assessment
13 February 2023—21:00 hours
A friend, colleague, and former client asked prior to the 15 February 2023 public meeting in East Palestine to assess what a facilitator might see and hear at such a meeting.
I explained we were retired and that we wouldn’t be interested in facilitating this situation (although our model of Collaborative Informed Consent might be used for a “reset” if all parties could have a “come to Jesus” meeting). He understood, and we agreed to share our thoughts.
As I told him, we are not psychics, however, after 50 years in the world of public engagement, certain behaviors are reasonably predictable. We submitted 25; however, we told him that 14 of them were reasonably the most predictable.
Of course, all of this is “speculative” and can and may not be a “spot on” assessment or even close. However, we felt honored to be asked for our opinion.
I have received consent to share these observations.
Our observations made prior to the meeting were:
1. Meeting arrangements and location will have to be moved to the largest venue located in the town.
2. There will be inadequate audio-visual equipment.
3. An independent, neutral, “down home” facilitator is required, and the organizers realize this too late.
4. Facilitation of the meeting will be by an improperly trained bureaucrat. A local official may emerge as the “facilitator and leader” of the meeting.
5. No “operating principles” or “protocols” will be established at the outset of the meeting, leading to a less-than-optimal engagement.
6. Presenters, if they are any, will not have analyzed their audience or practiced their presentations. They will present in front of an audience with people in wheelchairs, on crutches, senior citizens, and in front of elementary-aged children because it is these people who attend such meetings. At least one presenter will say, “Trust us…” without having displayed any behavior to have walked the talk.
7. Although all the “difficult questions” that could be asked can be reasonably predicted, no one will have taken the time to do so and provide “sound bite” and “understandable” answers. When attendees don’t understand answers, they will emotionally disrupt the proceedings, yet most likely will remain relatively calm, considering the circumstances.
8. Language used in the meeting presentations will be, at times, technical and incomprehensible to many members of the audience. This mistake leads to audience issues.
9. At least one presenter, facilitator, or “official” will come across as “arrogant” and or a “sociopathic bureaucrat.” Attendees will extrapolate that perception to all involved.
10. Not understanding their audience, some presenter or official representative will dress inappropriately and be seen as a “dork.”
11. Norfolk Southern (NS) will not “officially” attend but will have a “backbencher” present and will discreetly audio or videotape the entire meeting. Not attending is a tragic mistake.
12. NS will attempt to “buy” off some locals in some fashion following the “advice and counsel” of their legal eagles. NS will engage in the strategy “we will win” at all costs.
13. The feds and state officials will continue to point at each other as problems while “saying” they are working together.
14. Sec DOT will not show up on site until the “heat” becomes too great politically and is not welcomed by the locals.
15. EPA administrator will not attend town hall but may show up later and insist they will stay with the community as long as it takes.
16. Serious questions will be raised as to the “nuke burn off” strategy and why other options were not properly considered and communicated to emergency operation officials and the public prior to taking action.
17. Governors DeWine (R) and Governor Shapiro (D) Will equally be seen as less than capable leaders when all is said and done. Locally elected federal reps will engage. Senator J.D. Vance will show up at some point onsite. Not sure about Senator Brown. The local congressional representative will continue to be seen for a while as a leader and truly interested and concerned until a year out from his election.
18. Public health officials will be criticized for their failures to take part in the decision-making and to properly communicate the risks.
19. Class action lawsuits will be filed within 30 days not just in East Palestine but all along the Ohio River. Lawyers will start advertising for clients by 1 April 2023.
20. An explanation to the residents about why they were only those within a mile radius evacuated will be part of the class action lawsuits and never properly explained.
21. Lessons Learned report will reveal that having residents return to their homes as quickly as they were was a mistake.
22. Chemicals of Concern (COCs) from this hazardous waste crisis will be detected in Paducah, Ky by 1 April 2023 at the latest and most likely sooner.
23. Despite the “assurances” by EPA and others at the federal and state levels, once the “social media” and few mainstream media (MSM) stop reporting, the residents will feel lost and forgotten and they will blame all health issues on this point forward on this incident. TV, movie, and book deals will result.
24. The site will end up being a bigger embarrassment in terms of handling and execution than any other environmental disaster the country has faced.
25. The settlement of lawsuits 20 years downstream will dwarf the infamous Civil Action case in Woburn, Mass.
L. Darryl Armstrong Ph.D.
Facilitator of Collaborative Informed Consent